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After the Storm: Why Private Credit Redemption Queues Will Endure
A mathematical analysis of non-traded BDC redemption queues.

Mark Goldberg
Jun 2413 min read


Perpetual Fund ≠ Perpetual Capital
Is the Juice worth the Squeeze? Mark M. Goldberg, Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, 3 May 2026, “Perpetual Fund ≠ Perpetual Capital: Is the Juice worth the Squeeze?”, https://www.altsmi.com/post/perpetual-fund-perpetual-capital Executive Summary The non-traded REIT market has shifted from lifecycle vehicles to perpetual structures. That shift is widely understood in terms of liquidity, product design, and distribution efficiency. It is less well understood in term

Mark Goldberg
May 316 min read


The Status Quo Is No Longer Tenable: SREIT, A Lesson for Risk Management
A review of six years of audited balance sheet data from Starwood Real Estate Income Trust tell a story balance sheet contraction and a lesson for Risk Management.

Mark Goldberg
Apr 1910 min read


Five Years, Not Five Quarters: Queue the Math!
What the April 2026 NT-BDC Filings Confirm Prepared by Mark Goldberg | Research Note 5 of the series on this topic Mark M. Goldberg, Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, 5 April 2026, “Five Years, Not Five Quarters: Queue the Math!”, https://www.altsmi.com/post/five-years-not-five-quarters-queue-the-math Executive Summary In November 2025 I argued that the coming stress event in private credit would not originate from credit losses. It would originate from who fund

Mark Goldberg
Apr 510 min read


The Other Shoe Will Drop: Anticipation Risk in Semi-Liquid Secondary Private Equity
Executive Thesis
Apollo’s John Zito recently warned that private equity valuations of software companies may be materially overstated, stating that “all the marks are wrong.”

Mark Goldberg
Mar 2410 min read


Private Credit Funds: 5 Years of Net Outflows
This note is the fourth in a series examining liquidity dynamics in semi-liquid private credit vehicles. The key takeaway is the conclusion that for this cohort of funds we expect negative net inflows in the aggregate through Q2 -2031.

Mark Goldberg
Mar 107 min read


The Liquidity Reckoning: What Semi-Liquid Private Credit Funds Face Next
Private credit funds have entered a prolonged net-outflow cycle that will last six to eight quarters.

Mark Goldberg
Mar 55 min read


Conflict Opacity in Private Credit: The Deerfield Dakota LLC Example
In a Linkedin post titled "When the Valuation and Fairness-Opinion Provider Is Also the Borrower", I reveal by mapping relationships that certain Blue Owl managed Business Development Companies (BDCs) disclose the use of Kroll for independent valuation and/or fairness-opinion services.

Mark Goldberg
Mar 13 min read


Blue Owl Vehicle-Level Mapping of Kroll Valuation Relationships and Kroll-Associated Borrower Relationships with Blue Owl
Public SEC filings indicate that certain Blue Owl managed business development companies (BDCs) engage Kroll, LLC for valuation and/or fairness-opinion services while also holding loan exposure to Deerfield Dakota Holdings / Deerfield Dakota Holding, LLC, an obligor entity associated with Kroll.

Mark Goldberg
Feb 262 min read


Replacement Capital is the Canary in Private Credit: Public Non-Traded BDC Flows Cautious
Balance sheet stress in semi-liquid credit vehicles does not begin with credit losses. It begins when replacement capital slows.

Mark Goldberg
Jan 303 min read


Timeline to Approval – It’s Not You, It’s Me – and Getting Ghosted
This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. Respondents include the majority of wirehouse/regional firms, all the top independent broker-dealers, and a growing share of the National RIA firms. The survey captures 65.9% of all known capital flows to private market alternatives in the private wealth segment.

Mark Goldberg
Nov 17, 20255 min read


Stress Test for Semi-Liquid Credit Vehicles — Follow on to OpEd — Director’s Cut
I received inquiries regarding my recommendation quoted above from my OpEd of November 6th, which can be found on Investment News or on my website, AltsMI opinion section, inquiring as to how to monitor flows.

Mark Goldberg
Nov 10, 20257 min read


Upcoming Approvals, Momentum, and Shelf-Space Competition in Private Wealth
This research note uses data from the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey, which tracks product approval activity across leading distribution platforms in the Wirehouse/Regional, Independent Broker-Dealer, and National RIA channels.

Mark Goldberg
Oct 21, 20256 min read


Capital Formation Outlook
This research note is based on the combined data of the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey for the years 2025 and 2026, as well as Robert A. Stanger & Company for 2020–2024 data.

Mark Goldberg
Oct 16, 20258 min read


Getting on the Platform: Approval Funnel by Channel
This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. Respondents included wirehouse/regional firms, all the top independent broker-dealers, and a growing representative portion of the National RIA firms.

Mark Goldberg
Sep 24, 20254 min read


Adoption Snapshot: Who’s Using Alts—and How Much?
This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. The charts below reflect the weighted average responses delineated by peer group.

Mark Goldberg
Sep 22, 20254 min read


Getting on the Platform
The journey from introduction to approval consists of three major milestones: Introduced, Reviewed, and Approved. Each stage sharply narrows the field, and conversion rates vary dramatically by channel.

Mark Goldberg
May 20, 20252 min read


Alternative Capital Flows: A Bayesian Approach
Recency Bias is a cognitive bias where we often place too much significance on the latest data or experience.

Mark Goldberg
May 27, 20243 min read
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