This article is a follow-up to “Prediction Markets: A Scandal Hiding in Plain Sight,” which examined how structuring wagers as derivatives and embedding them inside brokerage accounts erodes household wealth and distorts capital formation.

A prediction market is nothing more or less than a wager on Monday Night Football. Whether the subject is an election, an economic report, or a celebrity outcome, the structure is identical: two parties take opposite sides of a binary event. One wins. One loses.

Markets love familiar villains. In private credit, the usual suspects are non-accruals, covenant breaks, and credit losses.

Over the past five decades, investing in America’s public markets has transformed profoundly.