I visited the Temple of Apollo on Ortigia yesterday on a family vacation. Apollo's oracle at Delphi is where the god's most famous instruction to mortals came from: know thyself. An honest accounting of what you are, taken before you act, is the discipline the maxim demands.

Cash flow is constrained, equity values are dropping, and management is redeeming its shares while investors cannot.

In April, I wrote that a series of asset-liability decisions made over the past several years had brought Starwood Real Estate Income Trust to an untenable balance-sheet position.

Headlines may get worse for BDC managers even if the redemption stress has peaked, says industry veteran Mark Goldberg.

A mathematical analysis of non-traded BDC redemption queues.

Semi-liquid private credit funds are a clear example of both causation and inevitability. Traditional institutional private credit largely operated under a relatively straightforward arrangement.

Is the Juice worth the Squeeze? Mark M. Goldberg, Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, 3 May 2026, “Perpetual Fund ≠ Perpetual Capital: Is the Juice worth the Squeeze?”, https://www.altsmi.com/post/perpetual-fund-perpetual-capital Executive Summary The non-traded REIT market has shifted from lifecycle vehicles to perpetual structures. That shift is widely understood in terms of liquidity, product design, and distribution efficiency. It is less well understood in term

A review of six years of audited balance sheet data from Starwood Real Estate Income Trust tell a story balance sheet contraction and a lesson for Risk Management.

What the April 2026 NT-BDC Filings Confirm Prepared by Mark Goldberg | Research Note 5 of the series on this topic Mark M. Goldberg, Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, 5 April 2026, “Five Years, Not Five Quarters: Queue the Math!”, https://www.altsmi.com/post/five-years-not-five-quarters-queue-the-math Executive Summary In November 2025 I argued that the coming stress event in private credit would not originate from credit losses. It would originate from who fund

Executive Thesis Apollo’s John Zito recently warned that private equity valuations of software companies may be materially overstated, stating that “all the marks are wrong.”

This note is the fourth in a series examining liquidity dynamics in semi-liquid private credit vehicles. The key takeaway is the conclusion that for this cohort of funds we expect negative net inflows in the aggregate through Q2 -2031.

Private credit funds have entered a prolonged net-outflow cycle that will last six to eight quarters.

In a Linkedin post titled "When the Valuation and Fairness-Opinion Provider Is Also the Borrower", I reveal by mapping relationships that certain Blue Owl managed Business Development Companies (BDCs) disclose the use of Kroll for independent valuation and/or fairness-opinion services.

Public SEC filings indicate that certain Blue Owl managed business development companies (BDCs) engage Kroll, LLC for valuation and/or fairness-opinion services while also holding loan exposure to Deerfield Dakota Holdings / Deerfield Dakota Holding, LLC, an obligor entity associated with Kroll.

This article is a follow-up to “Prediction Markets: A Scandal Hiding in Plain Sight,” which examined how structuring wagers as derivatives and embedding them inside brokerage accounts erodes household wealth and distorts capital formation.

Balance sheet stress in semi-liquid credit vehicles does not begin with credit losses. It begins when replacement capital slows.

A prediction market is nothing more or less than a wager on Monday Night Football. Whether the subject is an election, an economic report, or a celebrity outcome, the structure is identical: two parties take opposite sides of a binary event. One wins. One loses.

This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. Respondents include the majority of wirehouse/regional firms, all the top independent broker-dealers, and a growing share of the National RIA firms. The survey captures 65.9% of all known capital flows to private market alternatives in the private wealth segment.

I received inquiries regarding my recommendation quoted above from my OpEd of November 6th, which can be found on Investment News or on my website, AltsMI opinion section, inquiring as to how to monitor flows.

Markets love familiar villains. In private credit, the usual suspects are non-accruals, covenant breaks, and credit losses.