What the April 2026 NT-BDC Filings Confirm Prepared by Mark Goldberg | April 5, 2026 | Research Note 5 of the series on this topic Executive Summary In November 2025 I argued that the coming stress event in private credit would not originate from credit losses. It would originate from who funds the market and how that capital behaves when headlines turn. We have just completed a series of quarterly filings by the major semi-liquid private credit funds with the April 2, 20

Executive Thesis Apollo’s John Zito recently warned that private equity valuations of software companies may be materially overstated, stating that “all the marks are wrong.”

This note is the fourth in a series examining liquidity dynamics in semi-liquid private credit vehicles. The key takeaway is the conclusion that for this cohort of funds we expect negative net inflows in the aggregate through Q2 -2031.

Private credit funds have entered a prolonged net-outflow cycle that will last six to eight quarters.

In a Linkedin post titled "When the Valuation and Fairness-Opinion Provider Is Also the Borrower", I reveal by mapping relationships that certain Blue Owl managed Business Development Companies (BDCs) disclose the use of Kroll for independent valuation and/or fairness-opinion services.

Public SEC filings indicate that certain Blue Owl managed business development companies (BDCs) engage Kroll, LLC for valuation and/or fairness-opinion services while also holding loan exposure to Deerfield Dakota Holdings / Deerfield Dakota Holding, LLC, an obligor entity associated with Kroll.

This article is a follow-up to “Prediction Markets: A Scandal Hiding in Plain Sight,” which examined how structuring wagers as derivatives and embedding them inside brokerage accounts erodes household wealth and distorts capital formation.

Balance sheet stress in semi-liquid credit vehicles does not begin with credit losses. It begins when replacement capital slows.

A prediction market is nothing more or less than a wager on Monday Night Football. Whether the subject is an election, an economic report, or a celebrity outcome, the structure is identical: two parties take opposite sides of a binary event. One wins. One loses.

This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. Respondents include the majority of wirehouse/regional firms, all the top independent broker-dealers, and a growing share of the National RIA firms. The survey captures 65.9% of all known capital flows to private market alternatives in the private wealth segment.

I received inquiries regarding my recommendation quoted above from my OpEd of November 6th, which can be found on Investment News or on my website, AltsMI opinion section, inquiring as to how to monitor flows.

Markets love familiar villains. In private credit, the usual suspects are non-accruals, covenant breaks, and credit losses.

This research note uses data from the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey, which tracks product approval activity across leading distribution platforms in the Wirehouse/Regional, Independent Broker-Dealer, and National RIA channels.

This research note is based on the combined data of the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey for the years 2025 and 2026, as well as Robert A. Stanger & Company for 2020–2024 data.

This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. Respondents included wirehouse/regional firms, all the top independent broker-dealers, and a growing representative portion of the National RIA firms.

This research note is based on the 2025 Alts Leaders Survey. The charts below reflect the weighted average responses delineated by peer group.

Recency Bias is a cognitive bias where we often place too much significance on the latest data or experience.

The journey from introduction to approval consists of three major milestones: Introduced, Reviewed, and Approved. Each stage sharply narrows the field, and conversion rates vary dramatically by channel.

While factors like track record and asset class are broadly important, their weight varies significantly by gatekeeper. These distinctions have real implications for how managers approach product presentation, resource allocation, and engagement strategy.

The landscape of alternative investments continues to evolve rapidly. This research note explores the accelerating adoption of alternatives and larger allocations in portfolios across key distribution channels, including Banks, RIAs, and Independent Broker-Dealers.