This note is the fourth in a series examining liquidity dynamics in semi-liquid private credit vehicles. The key takeaway is the conclusion that for this cohort of funds we expect negative net inflows in the aggregate through Q2 -2031.

Private credit funds have entered a prolonged net-outflow cycle that will last six to eight quarters.

In a Linkedin post titled "When the Valuation and Fairness-Opinion Provider Is Also the Borrower", I reveal by mapping relationships that certain Blue Owl managed Business Development Companies (BDCs) disclose the use of Kroll for independent valuation and/or fairness-opinion services.

Public SEC filings indicate that certain Blue Owl managed business development companies (BDCs) engage Kroll, LLC for valuation and/or fairness-opinion services while also holding loan exposure to Deerfield Dakota Holdings / Deerfield Dakota Holding, LLC, an obligor entity associated with Kroll.

Balance sheet stress in semi-liquid credit vehicles does not begin with credit losses. It begins when replacement capital slows.